Former Georgia congressman Bab Barr has announced his candidacy for president on the Libertarian ticket. I don't know much about the guy other than he was rumored to lick whipped cream off of women's boobs at a charity event.
At least he's locked up the boob-licking vote. Could be formidable.
In all honesty this guy could affect the election. Here's how I see it:
Category 1:
-There are tens of millions of Democrats salivating at the chance for a win. That's the D base.
-There are tens of millions of Republicans who are going to vote their party no matter how bad it gets. That's the R base.
Category 2:
-There are many millions of people looking for a new direction and are going to vote for Obama. That's the anti-Bush.
-There are millions of people in the middle who are saying it's time for a new party to try governing. That's the independents.
Category 3:
-Then there are millions of Republicans who just can't stand the idea of voting for a Democrat, but are appalled at what the Republicans have done in the last 15 years. With an option like Barr on the table they can still vote their conscience--not Republican--and not have to vote for a Democrat. While it's not the two-vote swing that it would be if they voted for Obama, it's a vote lost from McCain. In this scenario Barr could be responsible for a couple percentage points here and there, something that could make a huge difference in swing states.
Something to watch.
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2 comments:
Good analysis. I don't see him pulling significantly from the D's. And he could make a difference. Nader pulled some 60,000 votes or so in Florida, and Bush only won by 900 or so? Could be the other way around this time.
Agreed. Although I'm of the opinion that Obama is going to put a whole bunch of previously unreachable states into play and will win the election without too much trouble, the addition of Barr makes it an even steeper uphill battle for McCain. Additionally, we have to wait for Ron Paul to act. If he backs Barr then he'll have real momentum and money.
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